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Game of Thrones

What if Jon Snow never mined dragonglass at Dragonstone?

Removing Dragonstone’s dragonglass shifts the war from massed countermateriel to time-buying and precision kills. The decisive condition—Valyrian steel to the Night King—still exists, but the window to achieve it narrows drastically, making tactics and fire discipline far more consequential. Outcomes range from accelerated collapse to a redesigned fortress defense that barely preserves Arya’s assassination window.

Competing Theories

We've gathered the strongest arguments from across the internet. Here's how they stack up.

No Dragonglass, No Chance

Best Supported

Without Dragonstone’s stockpile, most soldiers lack permanent wight-kill capability; fire alone stalls but does not scale against surging masses that bridge and climb. Archers lose effective ammunition, trenches become speed bumps, and morale implodes as the dead swarm walls and crypts sooner, compressing the timeline beyond Arya’s reach. Even with dragonglass, the canon battle hemorrhages forces (Dothraki erased, Unsullied sacrificial holds, multiple breaches). Strip out the thousands of forge

  • Jon frames the need as a ‘mountain’ of dragonglass and goes to Dragonstone to obtain it (S7E1–S7E5)
  • Winterfell visibly mass-forges dragonglass into weapons and arrowheads (S8E2)
  • Open-field Dothraki wipeout and rapid breaches even with dragonglass present (S8E3)
  • Wights overcome fire by bridging trenches with bodies (S8E3)
  • Walker-sire link only collapses a subset of wights, not the whole (S7E6)

Background Context

Show canon establishes dragonglass and Valyrian steel as the only melee materials that kill White Walkers; wights can be burned or destroyed by dragonglass. The only known large, accessible dragonglass deposit on the show is beneath Dragonstone. After Sam’s raven, Jon travels to Dragonstone (S7E2–S7E3), negotiates with Daenerys, and gains permission to mine (S7E3), leading to extensive extraction/forging (S7E4–S7E5). Dragonstone smiths produce large quantities of dragonglass weapons and arrowheads; some are carried on the S7E6 wight hunt, and mass shipments arm Northern, Unsullied, and Dothraki forces by S8E1–S8E3 at Winterfell. Without this supply, the North’s effective anti-Walker melee arms would be limited to a handful of Valyrian steel blades (Longclaw, Oathkeeper, Widow’s Wail, Heartsbane, Catspaw Dagger) and reliance on fire/dragonfire. Arya ultimately kills the Night King with a Valyrian steel dagger (S8E3), while trenches, barricades, and many infantry weapons seen in canon are tipped or made with dragonglass sourced from Dragonstone.

Full Analysis

A detailed breakdown of each theory with supporting evidence.

Core Claim

Even without a Winterfell-wide dragonglass issue, the only decisive condition remains killing the Night King with Valyrian steel, which instantly deletes his army. The plan refocuses on buying minutes, not hours: Melisandre’s ignitions, Unsullied shield-lines falling back through pre-set fire lanes, Theon’s godswood delay, and dragon strafes to clear corpse-bridges. Weather, Viserion, and flawed initial tactics already neutralized much of the show’s dragonglass advantage, yet Arya still threads

Even without a Winterfell-wide dragonglass issue, the only decisive condition remains killing the Night King with Valyrian steel, which instantly deletes his army. The plan refocuses on buying minutes, not hours: Melisandre’s ignitions, Unsullied shield-lines falling back through pre-set fire lanes, Theon’s godswood delay, and dragon strafes to clear corpse-bridges. Weather, Viserion, and flawed initial tactics already neutralized much of the show’s dragonglass advantage, yet Arya still threads a path to the godswood. With multiple Valyrian blades in play (Longclaw, Heartsbane, Oathkeeper, Widow’s Wail, Catspaw), plus fire as a staller, the assassination window can survive—narrower, bloodier, but intact.

Core Claim

Without Dragonstone’s stockpile, most soldiers lack permanent wight-kill capability; fire alone stalls but does not scale against surging masses that bridge and climb. Archers lose effective ammunition, trenches become speed bumps, and morale implodes as the dead swarm walls and crypts sooner, compressing the timeline beyond Arya’s reach. Even with dragonglass, the canon battle hemorrhages forces (Dothraki erased, Unsullied sacrificial holds, multiple breaches). Strip out the thousands of forge

Without Dragonstone’s stockpile, most soldiers lack permanent wight-kill capability; fire alone stalls but does not scale against surging masses that bridge and climb. Archers lose effective ammunition, trenches become speed bumps, and morale implodes as the dead swarm walls and crypts sooner, compressing the timeline beyond Arya’s reach. Even with dragonglass, the canon battle hemorrhages forces (Dothraki erased, Unsullied sacrificial holds, multiple breaches). Strip out the thousands of forged blades and arrowheads and the tempo accelerates catastrophically; with only a handful of Valyrian weapons, the defenders cannot meaningfully attrit or delay, and the Night King reaches Bran before an assassin can.

Core Claim

Acknowledging no mass dragonglass, commanders redesign for delay: cancel the Dothraki charge, fight from walls, stack multiple narrow trenches, oil-filled pits, and barricaded kill lanes, and keep disciplined reserves. Dragons burn lanes and corpse-bridges rather than dueling the Night King in the storm; Melisandre’s fires serve as synchronized resets. The Unsullied excel at ordered withdrawals through chokepoints, preserving combat power and time. The goal is not to win by attrition but to ext

Acknowledging no mass dragonglass, commanders redesign for delay: cancel the Dothraki charge, fight from walls, stack multiple narrow trenches, oil-filled pits, and barricaded kill lanes, and keep disciplined reserves. Dragons burn lanes and corpse-bridges rather than dueling the Night King in the storm; Melisandre’s fires serve as synchronized resets. The Unsullied excel at ordered withdrawals through chokepoints, preserving combat power and time. The goal is not to win by attrition but to extend the clock until Arya reaches the godswood for the Valyrian steel kill, turning Winterfell into a time machine instead of a killing field.

Core Claim

With little or no new dragonglass, command pivots to elite, high-value hunts: concentrate scarce obsidian pieces and multiple Valyrian blades on killing White Walkers to collapse their sired wights. Ambush zones (godswood, courtyards) and feints aim to expose Walkers long enough for Valyrian steel strikes. Each Walker killed creates a localized cascade, relieving pressure without massed anti-wight weapons. If several Walkers fall in quick succession, the frontline thins enough to preserve Arya’

With little or no new dragonglass, command pivots to elite, high-value hunts: concentrate scarce obsidian pieces and multiple Valyrian blades on killing White Walkers to collapse their sired wights. Ambush zones (godswood, courtyards) and feints aim to expose Walkers long enough for Valyrian steel strikes. Each Walker killed creates a localized cascade, relieving pressure without massed anti-wight weapons. If several Walkers fall in quick succession, the frontline thins enough to preserve Arya’s window, substituting precision node-kills for broad attrition.

The Verdict

Best Supported Theory

No Dragonglass, No Chance

How We Weighed the Evidence

This what-if stresses the show’s core design: a single decisive kill outweighs mass attrition, yet logistics and tactics determine whether that kill-window exists. It highlights how much the outcome hinged on time management, not just tools, and reframes Winterfell as a problem of operational design under supernatural weather and morale collapse. It also tests character consistency—whether these leaders adapt plans when their preferred materiel disappears.

Our Conclusion

Removing Dragonstone’s dragonglass shifts the war from massed countermateriel to time-buying and precision kills. The decisive condition—Valyrian steel to the Night King—still exists, but the window to achieve it narrows drastically, making tactics and fire discipline far more consequential. Outcomes range from accelerated collapse to a redesigned fortress defense that barely preserves Arya’s assassination window.

What Would Change This?

Given multiple valid interpretations, only explicit creator confirmation or new canonical material that directly addresses this question could settle the debate.

Sources (19)

  1. 1
    S3E8 'Second Sons'Canon
  2. 2
    S5E8 'Hardhome'Canon
  3. 3
    S7E6 'Beyond the Wall'Canon
  4. 4
    S8E3 'The Long Night'Canon
  5. 5
    Inside the Episode (S8E3) quote reported widelyWord of God