Reliable Narrator
Game of Thrones

What if Craster stopped sacrificing his sons?

Stopping the sacrifices collapses a transactional pact that the show makes unusually explicit, forcing the Others to choose between quiet enforcement and conspicuous deterrence. The most supported pattern is targeted retrieval: Walkers come for the infant, kill obstacles, but don’t immediately level the keep. Even so, a firm refusal also plausibly triggers a Night’s Watch withdrawal that averts the mutiny and subtly reshapes leadership at Castle Black, while cutting off a rare pipeline for creating new White Walkers.

Competing Theories

We've gathered the strongest arguments from across the internet. Here's how they stack up.

Cold Collection Over Siege

Best Supported

Refusing tribute ends the Others’ forbearance but doesn’t necessarily prompt a battlefield-scale response. Consistent with their on-screen behavior, they prioritize retrieving the “missed payment” with stealth: a Walker comes for the infant, eliminates whoever intervenes, and withdraws. The area turns into an ambush zone, with repeated attempts until the child is taken or defenders flee. This tracks with how the Walkers act when the pact is disrupted: they actively pursue specific infants and k

  • S4E4 Oathkeeper shows the infant’s conversion into a White Walker, confirming a concrete tribute-to-creation transaction
  • S3E8 Second Sons: a White Walker tracks Gilly’s newborn; Sam kills it with dragonglass, evidencing targeted retrieval
  • Mutineers occupy Craster’s Keep until S4E5 First of His Name without a keep-wide wipeout
  • S1E1 prologue depicts stealthy, selective killings consistent with ambush over siege

Background Context

Craster survives north of the Wall by offering his male infants to the White Walkers, a practice the Night’s Watch tacitly tolerates for shelter and information (S2E2). A White Walker is shown collecting one of these infants (S2E2), and later the Night King converts a Craster baby into a White Walker (S4E4), implying the pact both protects Craster’s keep and augments White Walker ranks. After the Fist of the First Men, Night’s Watch survivors take refuge at Craster’s, where Gilly bears a son slated for sacrifice. Starvation and resentment trigger the mutiny that kills Craster and Lord Commander Jeor Mormont (S3E4). Sam flees with Gilly and the baby, kills a pursuing White Walker with dragonglass (S3E8), and brings them to Castle Black. Rogue mutineers occupy the keep until Jon leads a ranging to end them (S4E5). The Walkers and their wights operate north of the Wall with growing activity, culminating in major actions like Hardhome (S5E8). The show never specifies exact terms of Craster’s bargain, but it consistently depicts noninterference with his keep while sacrifices continue.

Full Analysis

A detailed breakdown of each theory with supporting evidence.

Core Claim

Refusing tribute ends the Others’ forbearance but doesn’t necessarily prompt a battlefield-scale response. Consistent with their on-screen behavior, they prioritize retrieving the “missed payment” with stealth: a Walker comes for the infant, eliminates whoever intervenes, and withdraws. The area turns into an ambush zone, with repeated attempts until the child is taken or defenders flee. This tracks with how the Walkers act when the pact is disrupted: they actively pursue specific infants and k

Refusing tribute ends the Others’ forbearance but doesn’t necessarily prompt a battlefield-scale response. Consistent with their on-screen behavior, they prioritize retrieving the “missed payment” with stealth: a Walker comes for the infant, eliminates whoever intervenes, and withdraws. The area turns into an ambush zone, with repeated attempts until the child is taken or defenders flee. This tracks with how the Walkers act when the pact is disrupted: they actively pursue specific infants and kill obstacles, yet do not immediately raze Craster’s Keep despite chaos there. Their larger set-piece assaults (like Hardhome) are reserved for strategic aims; here, precise enforcement preserves secrecy and economy of force while maintaining the pact’s logic.

Core Claim

A categorical refusal near the heart of their range cuts a prized pipeline for new Walkers and risks inspiring other holdouts. To deter defiance, the Others could annihilate everyone at the keep and raise the dead, demonstrating that noncompliance invites obliteration. This also prevents the Watch (or anyone) from using the site as a staging ground. The Night King’s forces have shown the capacity for swift, devastating group-level actions when it serves a strategic message. By turning Craster’s

A categorical refusal near the heart of their range cuts a prized pipeline for new Walkers and risks inspiring other holdouts. To deter defiance, the Others could annihilate everyone at the keep and raise the dead, demonstrating that noncompliance invites obliteration. This also prevents the Watch (or anyone) from using the site as a staging ground. The Night King’s forces have shown the capacity for swift, devastating group-level actions when it serves a strategic message. By turning Craster’s Keep into a cautionary tableau, they secure their supply logic and reduce interference without needing to patrol the area for repeated retrieval attempts.

Core Claim

If Craster ends the pact, the keep loses all utility. Jeor Mormont, already intent on moving on, would likely order an immediate withdrawal, restoring discipline on the march and denying Karl and Rast the stagnant, abusive environment that catalyzes the mutiny. The column remains vulnerable, but Mormont’s authority is strongest away from Craster’s hearth and ration disputes. If Jeor survives to reach Castle Black, the leadership crisis is delayed or reshaped. Jon’s rapid ascent slows; the Watch

If Craster ends the pact, the keep loses all utility. Jeor Mormont, already intent on moving on, would likely order an immediate withdrawal, restoring discipline on the march and denying Karl and Rast the stagnant, abusive environment that catalyzes the mutiny. The column remains vulnerable, but Mormont’s authority is strongest away from Craster’s hearth and ration disputes. If Jeor survives to reach Castle Black, the leadership crisis is delayed or reshaped. Jon’s rapid ascent slows; the Watch might meet later threats with a seasoned Lord Commander still in place, altering timing and morale at the Wall. Craster’s wives might scatter south sooner, spreading word of the Others and the broken pact.

Core Claim

Ending the sacrifices shutters a rare, confirmed pathway for creating new White Walkers. While wights are plentiful, Walkers are elite force multipliers; removing even a trickle of new commanders modestly blunts future operational punch. This matters regardless of whether the keep sees immediate violence. The macro effect is uncertain, but the show treats each infant as consequential enough to merit targeted retrieval. Fewer new Walkers could marginally shift the tempo of raids or the compositi

Ending the sacrifices shutters a rare, confirmed pathway for creating new White Walkers. While wights are plentiful, Walkers are elite force multipliers; removing even a trickle of new commanders modestly blunts future operational punch. This matters regardless of whether the keep sees immediate violence. The macro effect is uncertain, but the show treats each infant as consequential enough to merit targeted retrieval. Fewer new Walkers could marginally shift the tempo of raids or the composition at key clashes, even if it doesn’t alter the ultimate arc of the Long Night on its own.

The Verdict

Best Supported Theory

Cold Collection Over Siege

How We Weighed the Evidence

This explores how transactional the supernatural can be: the Others aren’t mindless monsters but enforcers of a grim bargain whose breach triggers calculated choices. It also reframes the mutiny as contingent, showing how a single refusal might spare a Lord Commander and subtly reshape the Watch’s leadership and readiness. Finally, it highlights how even a small supply line—one man’s sons—can have outsized strategic meaning in a war of attrition.

Our Conclusion

Stopping the sacrifices collapses a transactional pact that the show makes unusually explicit, forcing the Others to choose between quiet enforcement and conspicuous deterrence. The most supported pattern is targeted retrieval: Walkers come for the infant, kill obstacles, but don’t immediately level the keep. Even so, a firm refusal also plausibly triggers a Night’s Watch withdrawal that averts the mutiny and subtly reshapes leadership at Castle Black, while cutting off a rare pipeline for creating new White Walkers.

What Would Change This?

Given multiple valid interpretations, only explicit creator confirmation or new canonical material that directly addresses this question could settle the debate.

Sources (12)

  1. 1
    S2E3 What Is Dead May Never DieCanon
  2. 2
    S3E4 And Now His Watch Is EndedCanon
  3. 3
    S3E8 Second SonsCanon
  4. 4
    S4E4 Oathkeeper (final sequence)Canon
  5. 5
    S4E5 First of His NameCanon